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Recent S3 map runners?

Navigata07

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I have decided to take on the task. There is a lot of data here, so I will be slowly adding each data point over the next few weeks into one big spreadsheet and plotting the result. I'm making the spreadsheet and will begin adding data at some point this week. No promises that I will see it through, but I will do my best.
 

Navigata07

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3 Pages entered, with a total of 54 points so far (the first 31 points before the current bonus structure was put in place, and most likely wont be included in the plot)
 

Navigata07

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All data has been entered at this point, except for the Geneva flight from @uschu who still needs to inform us of the bonuses. The only bonus that isn't included is the bowl of riches. I am not convinced that it applies to map runs, since it only affects quest items (collectible and non collectible quest items). The other bonuses only state "item from flights", so I did not count that bonus in the database. I will post a plot (or a few) soon. Thank you all for placing so much information over the past 2 years; it has been very beneficial
 

Barkmi4 (Mike)

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All data has been entered at this point, except for the Geneva flight from @uschu who still needs to inform us of the bonuses. The only bonus that isn't included is the bowl of riches. I am not convinced that it applies to map runs, since it only affects quest items (collectible and non collectible quest items). The other bonuses only state "item from flights", so I did not count that bonus in the database. I will post a plot (or a few) soon. Thank you all for placing so much information over the past 2 years; it has been very beneficial
Just a point to note, the bonuses changed last year. Before the change, only GD affected S3 maps? Have you accounted for that? Anything before that date is probably null for these purposes 😬
 

Navigata07

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Just a point to note, the bonuses changed last year. Before the change, only GD affected S3 maps? Have you accounted for that? Anything before that date is probably null for these purposes 😬
Yes the first 31 data points wont be included as it is pre 7.11 when the current bonus structure was implemented...thanks for reminding me. I could include them, but I would need to shift the GD runs to the SG column, since GD was +150%
 

Navigata07

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Ok here are the two plots I've generated so far. Here is what I can gather from looking at these plots:

Expected vs. Actual Drop Rates
1) The default drop rate without any bonuses is 3%. The fact that the "true data" seems to group together around the "perfect trend" tells me that the default drop rate seems to be an accurate number to use
2)There is a large spread in actual drop rate vs the expected drop rate
3) Potion of Luck in my spreadsheet is applied for all flights instead of just a fraction. Most of those flights are next to the major expected drop rates of 12 and 15% (slightly to the right). There isn't much of a shift upward when looking at the two columns of data, which tells me that the Potion of Luck really doesn't do anything, and this is with the addition to all flights. The reality is that it applies to even less of the flights, becoming even more insignificant.

Number of Flights vs. Drop Rates
1) The lower the number of flights, the higher the actual drop rate variability
2) For the few high number of flights, the variability between the expected vs actual drop rates seems tight, which indicates that the more flights you fly, the closer to the expected drop rate you will be. Number of flights is the parameter of importance, not number of stars or how many planes are used at once.

Let me know if you have any questions or make any additional observations.
1619016384534.png
1619016413813.png
 

Navigata07

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This is brilliant analysis. Are the individual bonus descriptions borne out by the results?

Great work @Navigata07
It's more of a collection of the bonuses more than the individual ones. With each flight, there was a combination of bonus items to lead to a combined bonus for each run. My database has each bonus item checked off based on use, so I know whats expected for each bonus combination
 
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