Is Boeing going down?

[Melanie]

I am currently writing a piece about the future of narrowbodies and as more information I collect the more obvious it becomes that the 737 MAX is a dog. By any measurement the 737 is losing, take orders, new customers or whatever. It seems obvious that Boeing, while being under pressure from the A32X NEO made the wrong decision. They might have just let Airbus have this piece of cake and should have gone for the Y1.
Looking a bit further, the highly praised 787 also don't seem to be the 'miracle' plane Boeing wanted it to be. Cxl after cxl, The routes it flies it was designed for (long and thin) it does in a seat layout of a garden party.
Might this be the beginning of the end? Is Boeing too happy with all the government contracts and customers that only buy american?

Any insight would be very welcome.

Disclaimer: i left out a lot of information (number of orders, seat layout etc.) in the hope that some people in the know don't need them but I am of course happy to provide them if needed.

 

[must_dash]

The 'bus is now 30yrs old and is now of its time. The 73 regardless of model is based on the 72 which was based on the 70. The 70 flew over 50 yrs ago. The fuselage is too narrow for modern seats, as people have got bigger and crash worthiness more important the seats have got higher and bigger. Hence windows seem too low. Boeing are also limited with engine choice as the short landing gear meant the engines are too close to the ground, this was fine on the 731 and 732 . However on the later models they had to redesign the engines so all the asseciories ar at the sides, hence the nacelle shape. To fit higher bypass or geared engines needs more ground clearance, means new gear, means new wing design..... On a 50 yr old design fuselage....

Airbus also scored with a common type rating, because of the fly by wire design a 318 can be made to handle the same as a 380 and to go from one to the other and 330 and 340 is only a short course, about 2 weeks except for the 330 as ETOPS training also needed.

Boeing still haven't got the single type rating idea.....

 

[Blackcloud]

No both OEM have got it wrong and decided to do a bandaid version due to the tight financial pressures.
Both OEM really stuffed up their latest wunderkind (787 and A380) due to design management issues, AB in-house and Boeing outsourced.
For narrowbodies there really is not much between them, fuselage width is virtually the same the only difference is the floor height allowing A32S to use cans which is much more efficient while 737 rely on bulk loading magic carpets.
I agree that with the short landing gear leg 737 is limiting the benefit of the new engines and B should have gone with the Y1, but the 787 "Nightmareliner" has drained it of resources, manpower and financial from pursuing it.
Oh the common cockpit is really window dressing. No airline I know really has used that for safety and operational reasons as it is not MS Flight Sim. I will not get into the pilot debate about A v B but IMO both have their Pros and Cons however I believe B has a more pilot minded design than A, I was training to be RHS on A320 pre-9/11.
No both A and B are doing what MDD did, which was minimal investment in new design to save capital costs (MD-11, MD90), only this time there are two competitors in the market pace and both have decided on this route so there is little competitive to design a new aircraft, which is what lead to MDD to cease.
787, unless the industry is really going to redesign itself, IMO it should but that is another paper, B is wrong about long and thin route these days with the high cost of fuel and pilot numbers, still more efficient and cost effective to hub and spoke but pax would prefer non-stop direct flights, but will not pay for it.
Larger aircraft have only a marginal cost increase which airlines can take advantage of, look at FR using 738 not 737, EK with more larger version now in the fleet, eg. 773 vs 772 or A332. They do not need to right size, but will fill seats with discounts to cover the marginal costs, so I see that there will not be replacements for the 737-7 or A318/9 sizes.
Sadly the VLA is more limited than in the past when the 747 first came around, and we will see more boring twins, 777, A330/A350, but I long for flights in the A380 and 747-8.
Seat layout, these days I am flying more WHY (as in whY am I in Y ) flights so I hate to see the future of 787, 9 across, 777 10 across as the airlines pack more WHY flyers becuase they are giving more floorspace to the premium cabin. I see the future of true First Class as extremely limited, due to the fact not many pax can afford it, little differentiation in hard product while soft cannot drive sufficient demand for that cabin. I doubt any 787 will have it installed.
Business Class is now at it limits, in terms of hard product while in soft if it get better there will be no need for First Class. Premium Economy, not to be confused with US type of only more legroom but same cr@p service, but the likes of QF, CX, JL, BA, VS, NZ, TK etc. will be expanded in the future.